A new cold war is building between Israel and Turkey, and while an outright shooting war is unlikely, the guardrails keeping it cold are wearing thin.

• Two former close partners are now arming opposite sides across the region and trading insults, with each leader calling the other a genocidal dictator.
• Syria is the flashpoint: after Assad fell, Turkey-backed forces took Damascus while Israeli troops pushed in from the south, and both now fly warplanes over the same country.
• The two have already come close to blows — Israel bombed airfields hours before Turkish forces could grab them, and Turkish and Israeli jets nearly clashed in Syrian airspace.
• Both leaders are weak at home (Turkey's economy and high inflation, Netanyahu's scandals and a war with Iran seen as a loss), so tough talk without real fighting suits them both.
• Trump holds leverage: Turkey wants back into the F-35 jet program, which only Washington can grant, giving the US some control over how far this goes.

Outlook: The cold war looks set to last for years, but as Turkey builds up its air defenses and jets and Israel winds down other fights, the risk of it turning hot grows.