The US and Iran are sliding back into full-scale war, and despite Washington's claims of victory, Iran is far from beaten — bad news for anyone hoping this conflict ends soon.

• The US won on the battlefield — near-total control of the skies, thousands of Iranian targets destroyed, Iran's navy sunk — but battlefield wins have not forced Iran to quit.
• Iran only needs to hold three things: control of the Strait of Hormuz, the ability to hit targets across the Gulf, and control of its own government — and it still can.
• Air power alone can't finish the job; the only way to force a surrender is a ground invasion, which Trump promised voters he would not do.
• Iran hides its missiles and drones in deep underground tunnels and dozens of small, scattered factories, so bombing can't wipe them out faster than Iran rebuilds.
• The Strait stays closed not because Iran's navy is strong, but because fast boats, drones, and sea mines make insurance too expensive for cargo ships to risk crossing.

Outlook: Expect a drawn-out standoff — Iran is betting Trump won't send troops, and without them the US can't force it to give in.