A war analyst who has advised US administrations for two decades says the Iran conflict is heading toward a ground invasion and a global economic crisis — bad news for oil markets and the world economy.

• The US is nine days into nonstop bombing, and Iran has come out stronger, not weaker.
• The chance of US ground troops in Iran is put at 70%, possibly by the end of the week.
• The big fear is oil: the world is close to running out, and Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route.
• Taking Iranian territory raises the risk of terrorist and suicide attacks at home.

Outlook: The choice comes down to a possible global recession or letting Iran control the Strait of Hormuz, with a ground operation looking more likely soon.