A commentary segment picks apart why JD Vance brought up "blackmail" over Trump's ties to Israel — bad for Trump, who looks either exposed or in over his head.

• Vance denied Trump could be "blackmailed" even though no one had used that word, which reads as either a slip or an attempt to get ahead of a story.
• Trump is on tape saying he did things "for the Adelsons," like moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, suggesting he can be swayed.
• The claim is that Netanyahu pitched this Iran war to several past presidents and Trump was the one willing to go along.
• Trump promised Iran's "unconditional surrender," but the U.S. now looks like the side backing down.

Outlook: Expect more questions about how much Israel and outside allies are steering Trump's Iran policy.