US options in the Iran conflict are narrowing, and this is bad for oil markets, US troops, and Trump's own footing if he pushes into a ground war.

• Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran even as he claims Iran wants a deal, sending mixed signals that make real negotiations hard.
• The world is short on oil, and Iran can choke off the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, so the West may be forced into a deal rather than choosing one.
• Any US ground troops near the strait would be sitting ducks for Iran's cheap drones and mines, making that plan look unworkable.
• Oil has stayed calm and the stock market is high partly because the US has been draining its emergency oil reserve — a trick that is running out.
• Running low on defensive missiles is forcing US aircraft carriers to pull far back from Iran, showing how exposed they are.

Outlook: Expect Trump to lash out and try more bombing or ground troops before oil shortages and military limits force some kind of deal or retreat.