A messy mix of a renewed Iran conflict, dwindling oil reserves, and a paid pro-Israel social media operation — mostly bad news for anyone hoping the fighting winds down.

• Emergency oil reserves are almost drained after countries released most of a 400-million-barrel stockpile, so supply could tighten within weeks as fighting flares again.
• A time report says a former Trump campaign manager, Brad Parscale, ran an Israeli-funded operation paying right-wing influencers to push "keep bombing Iran" messaging.
• JD Vance says the campaign, funded to the tune of over a million a month, tried to sink his Iran negotiations and attacked him personally.
• Over 100 House Democrats voted to cut off billions in aid to Israel, though the measure failed against united Republican support.
• Trump is weighing wider strikes on Iran — air strikes, seizing islands, even ground troops — while touting big profits for defense companies.

Outlook: Expect the Iran conflict to widen and oil supply worries to grow, with US support for Israel becoming a sharper partisan fight.