A University of Chicago war scholar warns the US-Iran conflict is entering its most dangerous phase, with a ground campaign now on the table — bad news for the world economy and anyone hoping the fighting was over.

• Trump won't rule out sending in ground forces and is moving troops and warships to try to retake the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran has shut down Hormuz, choking off 20% of the world's energy and driving oil prices higher.
• A short-lived deal with Iran fell apart because oil is still barely flowing, so US reserves keep draining toward a crisis point around mid-August.
• Trump is stuck: walking away hands Iran control of the Gulf and a path to nuclear weapons, but his MAGA base won't accept that kind of loss before the midterms.
• Robert Pape expects the gamble to fail, saying Trump is likely to lose Hormuz and take an economic hit rather than pull off a win.

Outlook: The next few weeks could bring escalation toward a risky ground operation, with a real chance oil supplies and the global economy take a serious hit.