A grim take on the US and Iran back at war, framed as a self-inflicted disaster for Trump and a warning of economic fallout.

• Trump has told Congress the US restarted strikes on Iran, and Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and vowing revenge.
• Trump has quietly dropped his original war goals — Iran can now enrich uranium, keep some missiles, and keep its allies — so the fighting is now just over the Strait and Lebanon.
• Casualties are far higher than officially reported, with claims of a cover-up and hundreds of US dead and wounded going unmentioned.
• The bombing backfired: Iranians who once opposed their own government are rallying around it after their families were hit.
• Trump floated a 20% toll on the Strait, then dropped it after realizing it would push gas prices up, since oil flows through there.

Outlook: Either Trump walks away and admits the war failed, or the fighting escalates toward a closed Strait and a global economic shock.