A grim outlook on the Ukraine war: even after a ceasefire ends the current fighting, both sides expect a third war to follow, making lasting peace unlikely.

• The current war is seen as the second round — the first was the lower-grade Donbas fighting that started in 2014 and set the stage for the full invasion.
• A ceasefire is expected, possibly this year, but it would only freeze the conflict, not settle it.
• Russia needs war to keep its war economy running and can't accept giving up occupied land or letting Ukraine rearm and take it back later.
• Ukraine won't accept limits on its military or NATO path, seeing any concession as a trap that weakens it for the next war it believes is coming.
• European intelligence agencies expect Russia to test NATO directly within a few years, with a bigger war possible after that.

Outlook: Expect the current fighting to pause in a frozen ceasefire, followed by a fast rearmament race on both sides ahead of a likely third war.