Russia is pressing its advantage in Ukraine, pushing toward either a forced peace deal or a final devastating assault — bad for Ukraine either way.

• Russian ballistic missiles are hitting Kiev with almost no interceptions, suggesting Ukraine's air defenses are running dry.
• Russia claims it has taken the fortress city of Constantinovka, and Ukraine keeps losing ground and running short of men.
• Forced army recruitment is sparking riots, with men grabbed off the streets and sent to the front after barely two weeks of training.
• Ukraine has already lost huge territory and taken massive casualties, and its economy is wrecked with no near-term recovery.
• Rebuilding could cost $600 billion, and firms like BlackRock plus the IMF and World Bank are lining up to control the money, minerals, and assets — leaving Ukraine indebted and dependent.

Outlook: Putin holds the cards and will soon choose between locking in his gains with a peace deal or unleashing an all-out strike on Kiev.