US and Iran are trading bigger and bigger attacks over the Strait of Hormuz, a dangerous escalation that risks pulling in the whole region and choking off a key oil shipping route.

• The US says it hit 140 Iranian targets after Iran attacked another commercial ship in the strait.
• Iran declared the strait closed; Trump insists it stays open, and neither side is backing down.
• The fight is spreading — Iran fired missiles at a US base in Jordan, and strikes hit civilian rail bridges linking Iran to China.
• War decisions are being made by just five or six people around Trump, with most of the government kept in the dark.
• Israel is still hitting Gaza, and there's a new push for Israel–Saudi normalization even as the fighting grows.

Outlook: The tit-for-tat strikes look set to keep escalating, with the risk of hits on Iranian power plants and a closed Strait of Hormuz that could spike oil prices.