A bearish call on Bitcoin, saying the real bottom hasn't hit yet and one last painful crash is coming — bad for holders now, but framed as a buying setup.

• Bitcoin is around $58,000 and the view is the bottom is still a few months away, likely end of Q3 or early Q4 2026.
• The reasoning is the four-year cycle: past tops came every four years (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025), with bottoms roughly a year later.
• We haven't seen "max pain" yet — no big exchange failures, no forced selling from Michael Saylor's Strategy, no final capitulation squeeze.
• The plan is to buy near $50,000, expecting to get liquidated on leverage a few times to force catching the exact bottom, then scale into a huge trade.

Outlook: One last capitulation toward $50,000 or below is expected before the market turns and a new bull run begins.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish near-term, bullish longer-term
• **Buy / accumulate:** First trade around $55,000; add lower at ~$50,000; last trade around $45,000 (10% steps down)
• **Support:** ~$50,000 (2015–16 support line drawn to current price)
• **Targets:** Downside bottom close to $50,000, possibly dipping below
• **Invalidation:** Getting liquidated on 10x leverage trades opened at $55K, $50K, then $45K — each liquidation triggers the next lower entry