Tensions are rising fast as the US bombs an Iran drone site, bad news for anyone hoping to avoid a wider Middle East conflict.

• A fight is brewing over key Gulf shipping lanes, with one side wanting ships to take a northern route so it can charge tolls.
• Iran got angry and sent a drone that hit a ship.
• Trump threatened to hit back, then ordered a strike on a tracked Iran drone launch site.

Outlook: Expect more tit-for-tat strikes and pressure on Gulf shipping if neither side backs down.