Tense and unresolved: US-Iran talks in Switzerland are stumbling, which is bad for oil markets, shaky for any ceasefire, and risky for the global economy.

• Iran's team left the negotiating room rather than pose for photos with US officials, signaling they'll only deal behind closed doors.
• The real holdup is not nuclear weapons but whether Israel pulls troops out of Lebanon and stops attacking Gaza — which the US side keeps sidestepping.
• Trump is threatening Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to "blow them out" and even take a cut of the oil if no deal is reached.
• The US negotiating team — Vance, Kushner, and Wickoff — has no nuclear or diplomacy background, raising doubts a real deal can get done.
• The draft deal barely touches Iran's nuclear program; enrichment, inspections, and closing facilities aren't even addressed.

Outlook: A ceasefire looks far off, and fighting could flare up again within days as Israel keeps troops ready in Lebanon.