Trump is pushing a hard line on Iran, refusing to stop bombing until Iran signs a deal — bad for Iran, uncertain for everyone else.

• Trump won't end the war until Iran caves, even as Iran reaches out asking him to stop; he's threatening to seize Iran's main oil island.
• The original goal of toppling Iran's regime has quietly faded because there's no trusted opposition leader for Iranians to rally behind.
• Israel wants the regime gone more than the US does, and may keep killing Iran's negotiators to sabotage any deal.
• The war is costing Iran billions a month in lost oil money, gutting an already weak economy.
• Higher gas and diesel prices are pushing US inflation up, squeezing Trump before the midterms.

Outlook: The war drags on as long as Trump thinks he can still extract a nuclear or oil concession; no clear end in sight.