Markets are nervous as inflation runs hot, central banks hike worldwide, and a US move to grab Iran's frozen money could blow up both the peace deal and trust in the dollar.

• US inflation came in hot, and producer costs are even worse, so prices people pay could climb past 5% by late summer.
• The European Central Bank just hiked rates for the first time since 2023, hitting weak economies like Germany, Italy, and France even harder.
• Japan is about to hike to a 31-year high because its currency is collapsing and it imports almost all its energy.
• Bessent wants to use Iran's frozen funds to pay Gulf allies for war damage, which could make Iran walk away and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut.
• Each time the US seizes assets, more countries dump dollars for gold — gold is now a bigger central bank reserve than US bonds.

Outlook: Trump is promising an Iran deal as soon as this weekend, and if it falls through again, markets that bounced on the hope could sell off hard.