Watch Before the SpaceX IPO --- The SpaceX IPO is set up to spike then sink, so chasing it at the open is risky for retail buyers — better to wait for the drop.

• The deal is wildly oversubscribed, with retail, the Saudis, and BlackRock all fighting for shares, but it's being called the biggest meme trade since GameStop.
• The structure looks built to pop: under 5% of the company is available at launch, retail's 30% allocation is locked for 15 days, and index inclusion lands the same day those locks expire — so it can't easily fall at first.
• About 13 times more shares hit the market a year from now, which is expected to drag the stock 30-50% below its peak regardless of the story.
• The "data centers in space" vision is shaky: token prices are falling faster than usage is growing, and space cooling and moon-built satellites aren't viable until the 2030s.
• Warning signs sit in Elon's track record — robotaxis and Optimus robots are far behind promises, and Starlink cut prices to pump user growth before quietly raising them again for the IPO.

Outlook: Expect a strong pop in the first month, then a long slide through next year as lockups release — patient buyers will likely get it cheaper.