Bad news for oil markets and the US position in the Middle East: the Iran conflict is flaring again despite officials calling it over.

• The US hit an Iranian ship near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran fired back hard at US-linked targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Iran is done trading blow for blow — it now hits back far harder to lock in its gains and force a deal.
• Officials insist the war is over even as bases get hit and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
• Gas is near $5 a gallon, and oil could jump to $150–160 a barrel within weeks if nothing changes.
• Market forecasts that kept stocks calm assumed the Strait would reopen by July — it hasn't.

Outlook: With the Strait still shut and talks stalled, expect more strikes and higher gas and oil prices in the near term.