Russia is preparing a major escalation in Ukraine, which is bad news for Kiev, EU diplomats, and anyone hoping for a quick end to the war.

• Russia launched Oreshnik missiles at Kiev after a Ukrainian drone strike killed 21 students at a college dorm in Sumy.
• Moscow told foreign diplomats to leave Kiev, warning of systematic strikes on defense industry sites, but the EU says it is staying.
• Sources say Russia has massed forces for a big push and may move to take Odessa, which would cut Ukraine off from the sea.
• Western special forces from the US, UK, France, and Germany are reportedly building up inside Ukraine ahead of what is coming.
• Trump publicly accused Ukraine of dodging US tariffs by routing steel through Poland, signaling growing distance from Zelensky.

Outlook: Expect heavy Russian strikes on Kiev infrastructure in the coming days, with a possible move on Odessa if Ukraine does not back down.