The Global Bond Market Crisis
Bond yields are spiking worldwide, signaling investors no longer trust governments to repay their debts without printing money — bad for borrowers, savers, and stock investors, potentially good for gold and Bitcoin.
- US 30-year Treasury yields hit the highest level since 2007, and similar spikes are happening in the UK, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, and Australia.
- China and Japan, America's two biggest foreign lenders, are selling US debt, forcing the US to pay higher rates to find new buyers.
- Inflation is creeping back up because oil has stayed above $100 since the Iran conflict, and fertilizer and shipping cost increases will hit grocery prices in the coming months.
- The Fed is trapped: cutting rates would panic bond investors and push yields even higher, but keeping rates high pushes the US interest bill past $1 trillion a year and strains an already weak economy.
- Stocks look very expensive by almost every historical measure, while gold and Bitcoin are gaining appeal as protection against governments printing money.
Outlook: Markets now give over 70% odds of a US rate hike by January 2027, and the Fed is quietly changing how it measures inflation to make the numbers look better.