The Trump administration is building a case to take military action against Cuba, which would be bad for Cuba and another sign the US is leaning hard on regime change in the hemisphere.

• US officials told Axios that Cuba has 300 military drones and may plan to hit Guantanamo Bay, US ships, or Key West, framing it openly as a pretext for invasion.
• The DOJ is also threatening to indict 94-year-old Raul Castro over a decades-old plane downing, mirroring the Venezuela playbook.
• CIA director Ratcliffe visited Cuba and warned officials to drop their government if they want sanctions lifted.
• The drone threat story is not credible since Cuba attacking the US would invite total destruction; the real driver is Trump wanting a win after the Iran fight embarrassed him.
• South Florida Cuban-American politics, including Rubio and Susie Wiles, keep pushing Cuba policy even though Cuba poses no real threat.

Outlook: Cuba is likely spared short-term while US forces stay focused on Iran, but Trump appears set on some kind of action against Havana once bandwidth opens up.