The real-world price of oil is far above the price shown on financial markets, a warning sign that physical oil is much tighter than headlines suggest.

• The paper price of oil sits near $100 a barrel, but actual delivered oil costs over $130.
• The $35 gap between paper and physical oil is the biggest ever recorded.
• The US imports more crude oil than it exports, making it a net consumer, not a supplier.
• The math undercuts the idea that America can keep global oil prices low.

Outlook: If physical oil stays this scarce, expect higher gas prices and more pressure on the official market price to catch up.