US strikes on Iran are restarting a deeply unpopular war, which is bad for Trump politically, bad for Americans facing higher gas prices, and good only for Israel's regional aims.

• The US is hitting Iran again after a drone incident near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for the world's oil supply.
• Israel reopened its assault on southern Lebanon, which Iran said would kill any peace deal — so the fighting keeps spiraling.
• The war is a political loser: 60% of Americans oppose it, and many Republicans now think the US has already lost.
• Trump campaigned against Middle East wars but is siding with pro-Israel donors and his inner circle over voters.
• Higher gas prices from the conflict could hurt Republicans in the midterms more than anything else.

Outlook: Trump claims a deal is close, but with Israel widening the war and Iran refusing to back down, more strikes look likely near-term.