Taiwan's Taipei mayoral race is being upended by the sudden surge of DPP candidate Shen Bo-yang, and one economist says this could reshape the ruling party's succession plans for years to come — a big deal for Taiwan's political future, and a threat to the current party establishment on both sides.

Economist Wu Chia-lung says Shen Bo-yang's momentum, nicknamed the "ocean current phenomenon," looks a lot like the 2018 "Han Kuo-yu wave" that turned a KMT outsider into the party's presidential pick. If the pattern repeats, Shen could become the DPP's new power center almost overnight.

Wu predicts that if Shen wins Taipei, President Lai Ching-te will need Shen's popularity to win reelection — and could end up grooming him as the DPP's 2032 presidential candidate, echoing how Tsai Ing-wen rose as a non-traditional party figure.

This is a double-edged sword for the DPP: if the party handles the shift well, it strengthens their grip on power, but if entrenched factions turn on Shen out of jealousy or rivalry, it could trigger internal infighting that costs the party its ruling position.

On the other side, Wu believes the KMT may be quietly maneuvering in response, laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential ticket pairing Han Kuo-yu with Lu Shiow-yen as current Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an's influence fades.

Outlook: Watch whether Shen actually wins the Taipei mayoral race — that result will determine if this "wave" reshapes leadership in both major parties heading into 2028 and 2032.