Taiwan's 2026 nine-in-one local elections are turning into a contest of political lines between former President Tsai Ing-wen and current President Lai Ching-te — bad news for Lai's standing within the party.

• In a rare move, Tsai has crossed between northern and southern Taiwan to serve as campaign headquarters chair for several DPP candidates, a sign of the party's acute anxiety about the race.
• Polls show Tsai remains Taiwan's most popular political figure, and over the past two years and more Lai has largely stuck to her approach on cross-strait relations, ties with the United States, and domestic policy.
• If Su Chiao-hui wins in New Taipei, most of the credit will go to Tsai; if Lai Jui-lung loses in Kaohsiung, the contrast will make Lai Ching-te look weaker still.
• At present the Kuomintang's Li Si-chuan is favoured in New Taipei, while Ko Chih-en is reported to be leading in Kaohsiung. The post-election cabinet reshuffle and positioning for 2028 will be directly affected.

Outlook: The election results will determine whether Tsai's influence over the Lai administration deepens further, or whether Lai gets a chance to step out of his predecessor's shadow.