The Iran conflict has pushed the US out of its Gulf bases and turned the Strait of Hormuz into a convoy operation, which is bad news for the Navy, global shipping, and anyone buying goods this Christmas.

• Former CENTCOM commander David Petraeus said the eastern Gulf bases are finished, forcing the US to run the war from Diego Garcia, 2,200 miles away.
• Oil is still leaving the Gulf, but only in guarded night convoys with slow ship-to-ship transfers afterward, so the real flow is far below what Washington claims.
• Ship fuel has jumped from about $550 a ton to $850, and big hubs like Singapore are running low, pushing up the cost of moving everything.
• The Navy may need up to 16 destroyers parked in the region for years, wearing out crews and ships a peacetime fleet cannot repair fast enough.
• Iran hit half a dozen ships in August and killed two sailors on a Saudi vessel; the US answered by sinking an empty tanker, the biggest ship it has sunk since World War II.

Outlook: Global oil stocks keep shrinking and container rates have already tripled, so expect higher prices on store shelves by Christmas and a fresh spike if any new disruption hits.