The Republican race for 2028 is already quietly under way, and Vance's balancing act between Trump loyalty and his friendship with Tucker Carlson is emerging as his biggest weakness.

• Vance refuses to break with Carlson even as Carlson attacks Trump, calling political disagreement a bad reason to drop a friend.
• That stance reads as an early attempt to distance himself from Trump and hold on to the Carlson wing of the base.
• Trump's trust in Vance looks thin, and Trump may quietly prefer Marco Rubio as his successor.
• Vance's real goal is to keep Rubio out of the race, since Rubio is the only Republican strong enough to beat him.
• A cleared field would let Vance skip real debates, the same way Byron Donalds avoided them in Florida — a bad habit for the party.

Outlook: Expect heavy pressure on Rubio to sit 2028 out, and if he does, Vance likely runs close to unopposed.