Libya's two rival governments have signed a deal to reunite the country, but the real winner looks like the eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar — bad news for ordinary Libyans, good news for the oil deals that follow.

• After 12 years split in two, both sides agreed in late August to unify institutions and hold nationwide elections within two years.
• The deal was brokered by Washington and mainly hands top jobs to the same two ruling families — Haftar's in the east, Dbeibah's in the west — rather than opening the door to real democracy.
• Both families are accused of torture, killings, and stealing billions, and neither is being pushed aside.
• Haftar has quietly won over the U.S., Russia, Turkey, China, Egypt, and the Emirates, and has picked up drones and fighter jets despite an arms embargo.
• Libya holds one of the world's largest oil reserves, most of it in Haftar's territory — the likely reason outside powers stopped caring about elections.

Outlook: Once the two families are inside one government, expect a violent power struggle that Haftar and his sons are heavily favored to win.