Bitcoin's current setup points to a limited drop, which is mildly reassuring for holders but leaves room for a deeper slide.

• The odds favor Bitcoin holding above the low $77,000s in this pullback.
• A drop under $77,000 is possible but less likely than not.
• Falling to $75,000 or lower is a smaller chance still.
• A slide to the $70,000 area, the line that would mark the end of this bull run, is the least likely outcome.

Outlook: Expect a normal pullback rather than a collapse unless Bitcoin breaks under $70,000.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral to bullish — a pullback is expected, but a deep one is unlikely.
• **Support:** $77,000, then $75,000, then $70,000.
• **Targets:** Downside scenarios at below $77,000 (43% odds), $75,000 or lower (28% odds), $70,000 (15% odds).
• **Invalidation:** $70,000 — losing that level ends the current bull market move.