The Iran conflict escalated sharply as US forces destroyed three Iranian oil tankers, a bad turn for anyone hoping the standoff stays contained.

• The US blew up three Iranian crude tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Iran's coast, saying it was payback after Iran fired missiles at a US carrier and destroyer.
• The stated goal is economic: hit the oil fleet that funds the Revolutionary Guard, with a threat to destroy the rest of it.
• Odd timing — the tankers were largely defenseless and the US blockade was already squeezing Iran, so blowing up ships looks like escalation rather than pressure that was working.
• Iran warned South Korea that sending forces to the Strait of Hormuz would make it a party to the war; Koreans are broadly against getting involved.
• Trump is also floating a strike on Iran's uranium enrichment site at Pickax Mountain, while Israel launched fresh attacks in southern Lebanon.

Outlook: Iran is unlikely to let this pass, and a strike on the enrichment site would push the conflict into open war.