West Africa's Sahel is unraveling under its military governments, and the failed mutiny in Niger has left the country weaker and more exposed to jihadist groups.

• Junior officers in Niger tried to seize the capital and the main air base, but the president's elite guard beat them back with late help from Russian mercenaries.
• The mutineers were front-line troops worn down by years of losing battles to al-Qaeda and Islamic State fighters; now they face prison or execution, stripping the army of its best soldiers.
• Russia's Africa Corps keeps only a few hundred men in Niger, rarely fights on the front lines, and hesitated before defending the government it is paid to protect.
• Jihadists are already exploiting the chaos, hitting targets within a few miles of both Niger's and Mali's capitals in the days after the mutiny.
• The regime is now busy purging its own ranks instead of fighting the insurgents, and the president has not appeared in public.

Outlook: Niger looks like the weakest link in the Sahel, and the Islamic State's local branch is expected to press its advantage in the coming months.