The US and Iran are now hitting each other's ships in the Gulf, and the tit-for-tat is getting worse fast — bad for oil, shipping, and anyone hoping this stays contained.

• The US struck three Iranian oil tankers after missiles were aimed at its warships, and Iran answered by targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Washington is openly threatening to sink more of Iran's oil fleet, calling it defenseless and exposed.
• Israel has widened its own operations into Syria, Lebanon, and the West Bank, where the US ambassador is being challenged over settler violence.
• Kushner and Witkoff met Russian officials in Moscow, where sanctions relief and resource deals are the real bargaining chips.
• Money is pouring into US midterm races from pro-Israel groups and from a Trump-Musk super PAC, making a change in policy less likely.

Outlook: With no ceasefire holding and both sides raising the stakes, expect more attacks on tankers and infrastructure, and pressure on oil and shipping through Hormuz.