Iran looks likely to step up attacks on US and Israeli targets over the next two months, which is bad for oil prices, drivers, and anyone hoping the conflict cools down.

• Israel now sees credible signs Iran is preparing to restart the fighting, possibly with a large, headline-grabbing strike.
• Iran has a history of timing pressure to US elections — it held American hostages until the exact minute Reagan was sworn in back in 1981.
• The incentive is simple: higher gas prices hurt Trump's party at the midterms and could cost him control of Congress, limiting any wider war with Iran.
• Last week's flare-up already showed the pattern — Iran tried to re-mine the Strait of Hormuz after the White House bragged about oil flows recovering, and a ballistic missile appears to have hit a US helicopter base near the Jordan border despite claims everything was intercepted.
• Russia is reportedly helping Iran build cruise missiles, which fly low and are far harder to shoot down than the ballistic missiles already getting through.

Outlook: Expect oil prices to stay under upward pressure into the midterms, with talks stalled and a bigger Iranian attack seen as likely within weeks.