As Taiwan's 2026 local elections enter the registration phase, the "threshold for victory" is entirely different for the Blue and Green camps — a source of pressure for the Kuomintang and an opportunity for the Democratic Progressive Party.

• Over the past decade the pattern has been "Green wins at the centre, Blue wins locally," with the KMT taking 15 cities and counties in one sweep in 2022.
• The baseline this time is too high: even winning 14 seats would count as a step backwards for the Blue camp, while six seats would count as a win for the Green camp.
• On party support, the Blue and White camps combined still trail the DPP, and party chair Cheng Li-wun's favourability is also on the low side.
• The two main battlegrounds are Kaohsiung and New Taipei: Chen Chi-mai is polling strongly, while New Taipei sees Lee Si-chuan and Su Chiao-hui locked in a close contest in a city that has not changed ruling parties in 21 years.
• Blue-White cooperation has run into trouble again, with the Taiwan People's Party possibly fielding its own candidate in Changhua, adding to the Blue camp's difficulties.

Outlook: The focus of the campaign will fall on New Taipei and Kaohsiung, and whether the Blue and White camps can coordinate will be the key factor determining how the seat count shifts.