The second Trump-Xi summit, set for Washington later this month, looks like a low-expectations affair where both leaders need a win at home more than a breakthrough abroad — neutral for markets, mildly reassuring for Taiwan.

• Trump wants China to commit to buying more American planes, soybeans and beef before the November midterms.
• Xi needs to show he can handle Washington while China heads into major Communist Party meetings.
• Taiwan should get less airtime this round, partly because the US controls the agenda on home turf.
• Trade, tariffs, technology, supply chains and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are all on the table.
• Two flashpoints loom: pressure on China to shrink its huge trade surplus, and US plans to sanction Iran's business partners — China being Iran's biggest customer.

Outlook: Expect a transactional truce with purchase promises rather than any real settlement, and little that changes Trump's weak poll numbers.