The US-Iran fight is escalating badly, with civilian deaths in Iran, retaliation against US bases, and oil prices climbing — bad for everyone except those betting on higher energy costs.

• A US strike hit a wedding in southern Iran, killing civilians including children, alongside strikes on ports, a residential area, and the power grid.
• Iran hit back at US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, with both sides giving conflicting accounts of the damage.
• The US is running low on interceptor missiles, while Iran keeps churning out cheap drones — a trade that favors Iran the longer this drags on.
• Oil prices are spiking because ships are being turned away from the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran says it has mined the route.
• Trump has walked away from talks and hinted at an attack that would leave "very little left" of Iran, language widely read as a nuclear threat.

Outlook: Neither side looks ready to back down, so expect more tit-for-tat strikes, higher oil and gas prices, and deeper Russia-Iran cooperation.