US pressure on Venezuela and Iran may be part of a deliberate plan to choke off China's oil supply — bad for Beijing, and a sign of a longer economic fight ahead.

• Washington's moves against Iran and Venezuela both hit countries that ship large amounts of oil to China.
• Iran sent almost all of its oil to China, so squeezing Iran squeezes Beijing directly.
• The thinking is long-term — treating China as the main rival for decades, not just the next news cycle.
• Public statements about helping China get the oil it needs sit oddly alongside the actual pressure being applied.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on China's oil suppliers, which could keep energy markets jumpy.