The Iran conflict is heating up again, with Iran hitting US bases across the Gulf while Washington looks for an exit — bad for US forces in the region and for anyone hoping the war was winding down.

• Iran struck US positions in Kuwait, Jordan and reportedly the UAE with more advanced missiles, going beyond simple tit-for-tat.
• Trump is said to be thinking about just declaring victory and moving on, but the US blockade of Iran is itself an act of war, so Iran gets a say in when it ends.
• Iran also drew a new red line, warning against any Israeli push into southern Lebanon.
• Squeezing Iran's economy is hurting ordinary people there, but oil money stockpiled early in the war can fund the regime into March, so there is no sign of collapse.
• The US is now firing cheap long-range glide bombs and Tomahawks from hundreds of miles away because its jets can't fly close safely — a US strike on a wedding was confirmed by bomb fragments after being denied.

Outlook: Expect more Iranian strikes and a US push to freeze the conflict until after the midterms, with a fuller war footing likely after that.