Rising prices, a widening Iran war, and falling trust in America add up to a bad outlook for US consumers and the country's standing abroad.

• Inflation looks stuck at 3–4% instead of the Fed's 2% target, with a huge federal deficit working against any fix.
• The Iran conflict is pushing oil toward $100 and diesel to a four-year high, after strikes on US bases in Kuwait and the UAE.
• US troop deployments in the Middle East now run into 2027, and Trump's team wants the war contained until the November midterms.
• The Dutch central bank moved $12 billion of gold out of North America to London, a sign allies no longer trust the US as they once did.
• Everyday costs — groceries, energy, water bills — are the real story for most people, many of whom feel they have nothing left to lose in a crash.

Outlook: Expect higher fuel prices and continued price pressure into the midterms, with no relief from the Fed in sight.