Hawaii is bracing for a category 4 hurricane expected to swing north toward Kauai early next week, which is bad news for the outer islands, the power grid, and anyone with travel or work plans in the northwest island chain.

• Hurricane Lol sits south of Kauai with 140 mph winds and is forecast to turn sharply north late Saturday or Sunday.
• The closest pass to Kauai and Niihau comes Monday into Tuesday, likely as a category 3 storm, with the islands sitting inside the margin of error.
• The Papahanaumokuakea marine monument is squarely in the path, and every island can expect wind, rain, and heavy surf.
• Forecasters blame the wide spread of tracks on a nearby second storm, Karina, and warn that model maps circulating online are being cherry-picked for clicks.
• FEMA is sending Hawaii $18.5 million to harden a grid that already lost power for 60% of Hawaiian Electric customers in the last storm, though those projects run through 2029.

Outlook: The turn should come this weekend, and by Monday it will be clear whether Kauai takes a direct hit or a glancing blow.