Europe is edging closer to direct conflict with Russia, and the fallout is already hitting oil and diesel prices.

• Two German power sites were hit by suspected sabotage, including explosive devices found near a coal plant, and police are treating one as possible terrorism.
• Germany blames Russia for a drone packed with explosives at Leipzig airport last month and has shut a Russian consulate in response.
• Blame is being assigned fast with no named suspects, echoing Nord Stream, which was pinned on Russia before turning out to be Ukraine's work.
• Zelensky has warned airlines, insurers, and passengers that Russian airspace is no longer safe as Ukraine floods it with drones.
• Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have pushed Brent crude near $100 and US diesel to within days of a record high, which feeds straight into inflation.

Outlook: Expect more sabotage claims, louder calls in Europe to invoke NATO's Article 5, and rising fuel costs as long as Ukraine keeps burning Russian refining capacity.