Republicans are heading into the midterms in far worse shape than the map suggests, which is bad news for Trump's party and a rare opening for Democrats.

• Trump's approval is near its all-time low, and he is underwater with independents even as his own party still backs him.
• The main drivers are anger over the economy, high gas prices, and the Iran war.
• Even safe-looking seats in Texas, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska are now in play despite Republicans redrawing districts to protect themselves.
• Battleground Republicans are dodging Trump's midterm convention and trying to look independent, a strategy that rarely works because voters tie them to their party's president anyway.
• Consumer confidence has fallen even among Republicans, a warning sign for turnout.

Outlook: Democrats look set to gain, but whether they can turn anger at Trump into a lasting coalition is still an open question.