An early-September rally in Bitcoin would be a bad sign, not a good one, based on how past weak Septembers have played out.

• In red Septembers, Bitcoin usually tops out around the fourth day of the month.
• The low tends to arrive mid-month, around day 16.
• The typical path is a small rise of about 5% first, then a slide of 15% or more.
• Not one of the nine losing Septembers bottomed early and then climbed — the drop always came after the pop.

Outlook: A strong first week of September would set up a mid-month decline; weakness early would be the healthier setup.