Bitcoin looks strong right now, and a close above a key level today would put the odds firmly on the side of buyers over the next three months.

• Momentum indicators on the daily and 5-day charts are both turning up at the same time, a rare combo.
• When that pairing has happened since 2011, Bitcoin was higher three months later about three quarters of the time, with a typical gain near 30%.
• Eight of eight longer-term timeframes are pointing up, which confirms the trend even if it does not promise a big month on its own.
• September so far is tracking the usual pattern: an early dip, then a grind higher into mid-month.
• The catch is that all of this depends on today's close holding above the line; a fresh low next week would break the case.

Outlook: Expect a slow drift higher until the Fed meeting and options expiry in the third week of September, which is where the month's high may land.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish, as long as today's daily close holds above the pivot.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Buying daily at current levels around $81,000; sees value here.
• **Support:** $75,000 mid-band — above it there is no reason to be bearish short term; $78,800 is the lower edge of the first upper band.
• **Invalidation:** Daily close below $80,600 (CME) or $80,300 (spot); on the 5-day, the pivots are $64,650 (CME) and $71,800 (spot). A new September low after around Sept 7 would also break the bullish case.
• **Targets:** About $104,000 in 90 days (late November/early December) based on the median 28.5% move; the 6-month median is over 53% higher.