Russia is edging toward a full call-up of hundreds of thousands of men, a desperate move that could either save Putin's war or bring down his rule.

• Ukrainian intelligence says Moscow has decided to call up 300,000 troops by year's end and another 300,000 in 2027.
• Volunteer sign-ups have collapsed, and Russia is burning through soldiers faster than it can replace them.
• Snatch squads are already grabbing men off the streets in ordinary Russian cities, not just poor and minority regions as before.
• 113,000 Russians fled into Georgia in a single week, the biggest rush since the 2022 partial call-up.
• The fresh troops would likely free up experienced units for a spring push on Kiev, possibly staged through Belarus.

Outlook: A formal decision is expected after this month's parliamentary elections, with any big offensive waiting for the spring thaw.