A KMT-commissioned poll puts Li Si-chuan ahead of the DPP's Su Chiao-hui in the New Taipei mayor race, a positive sign for the KMT heading into Taiwan's year-end local elections.

• Li draws about 40% support to Su's 33%, a gap that has held steady for three straight months.
• Both parties' bases are locked in, so the race turns on swing voters — where Li leads — and on TPP supporters, who back him by a wide margin.
• On the question of who voters expect to win, Li's edge widens to 12 points.
• Li is courting women and undecided voters with childcare promises and a rail plan to link Taipei and New Taipei within a 30-minute commute.
• Around the race, the KMT is attacking the ruling party over military pay, and former president Chen Shui-bian is warning the DPP it cannot count on a split between the KMT and TPP to win.

Outlook: Candidate registration is underway, with Tsai Ing-wen personally escorting the DPP's Taipei candidate to file, and the campaign now moves into its final stretch before the year-end vote.