A KMT-commissioned poll puts Lee Si-chuan ahead in the New Taipei mayor's race, good news for the opposition KMT and a setback for the ruling DPP's candidate.

• Lee leads Su Chiao-hui by about 7 points, roughly 40% to 33%.
• The gap has held steady for three months running, wider than the poll's margin of error.
• On who voters think will win, Lee's lead is even bigger — about 12 points.
• Party loyalty is locked in, with almost 9 in 10 supporters on each side backing their own candidate.
• Su, who registered her candidacy this week, said she respects the numbers and will treat them as a reference.

Outlook: Lee holds a stable edge heading into the campaign, and Su will need to pull undecided voters rather than flip party loyalists.