The US and Iran are trading fire again after a month-long lull, and the shift toward repeated, open-ended strikes is bad news for oil markets, US troops in the region, and anyone hoping the conflict was over.

• US forces hit Iranian rocket launchers on Lark Island, saying Iran was preparing to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz; two people were killed.
• Iran fired ballistic missiles at a Jordanian air base housing US troops, and Trump has promised to hit back again.
• The new plan is to strike Iran periodically to keep oil tankers moving through the Gulf, with no end date — soldiers are being told to expect to stay into 2027.
• Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is resigning amid months of friction with Pete Hegseth, a sign the generals see this as unsustainable.
• The threatened "economic war" of secondary sanctions looks hollow, since China buys most of Iran's oil and the US will not risk pushing Beijing off the dollar.

Outlook: Expect more tit-for-tat strikes, higher gas prices, and a growing risk that the exchanges escalate into full-scale war.