Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an is looking like the strongest figure in Taiwan's opposition ahead of November's local elections, which is bad news for President Lai Ching-te's ruling DPP.

• The DPP's plan to tie Chiang down in Taipei has flopped — he keeps campaigning for his party in other cities.
• DPP candidates in Taipei and Kaohsiung keep challenging Chiang to debates, mostly because attacking him gets headlines.
• Lai has started going after Taichung mayor Lu Shiou-yen too, a sign her support is climbing, but Chiang is seen as his real 2028 worry.
• New Taipei is the biggest battleground, with the DPP candidate only a couple of points behind the KMT's Li Si-chuan in the latest polling.
• The KMT admits it has trouble in Chiayi and Changhua, and its failed alliance talks with the smaller TPP could cost it votes.

Outlook: The election is under three months away and will be the first real test of Lai's presidency, with New Taipei and the southern DPP strongholds the races to watch.