Taiwan's most-watched local race is now a dead heat, with the ruling DPP's candidate pulling ahead of the KMT favorite for the first time — a warning sign for the KMT ahead of the year-end elections.

• Su Chiao-hui leads Lee Ssu-chuan by a hair in the latest New Taipei poll, well inside the margin of error.
• The swing is dramatic: Lee was up nearly 10 points in January and has been bleeding support all year.
• More voters now say it is time to let the DPP run the city than say the KMT should keep it.
• Outgoing mayor Hou Yu-ih is hugely popular, even with green-leaning voters, but that goodwill is not transferring to Lee.
• Former president Tsai Ing-wen, who chairs Su's campaign, is the most-liked politician tested, while Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an's ratings have dropped sharply.

Outlook: With three months to go and both candidates registering in early September, the race likely turns on whether Hou can hand his popularity to Lee.